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足球流氓行为会造成多少暴力?

How much violence does football hooliganism cause?
Journal of Public Economics · 2023 · Leander Andres、Marc Fabel、Helmut Rainer

中文摘要

本文量化了社会中的暴力犯罪有多少可归因于足球相关暴力。利用丰富的犯罪登记数据,我们研究了2011—2015年期间德国前三级足球联赛举行的全部职业足球比赛。我们的主要结果表明,比赛日的暴力犯罪增加了17%,相应的社会成本每年约为5800万欧元。在探讨可能的机制时,我们发现,比赛日效应可归因于18—39岁男性群体中的暴力行为;在竞争激烈的德比比赛日,该效应升至63%;其中不可忽视的一部分源于群体作案者实施的暴力犯罪以及对警察的袭击。我们记录的大多数事实都可以由足球流氓行为的社会认同解释所涵盖,而体育相关暴力的挫折—攻击理论只能分别解释其中部分发现。

Abstract

This paper quantifies how much of violent crime in society can be attributed to football-related violence. Exploiting rich crime register data, we study the universe of professional football matches played out in Germany’s top three football leagues over the period 2011–2015. Our main result shows that violent crime increases by 17 percent on a match day, with associated social costs of roughly 58 million euros annually. Exploring possible mechanisms, we find that the match day effect can be attributed to violence among males in the 18–39 age group, rises to 63 percent on days with high-rivalry derby matches, and that a non-negligible share of it stems from violent crimes committed by group offenders and assaults on police officers. Most of the facts we document can be accommodated by social identity explanations of football hooliganism, while frustration-aggression theories of sports-related violence can explain only some of the findings in isolation.
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