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环境事故的选举后果:来自切尔诺贝利的证据

The electoral consequences of environmental accidents: Evidence from Chernobyl
Journal of Public Economics · 2023 · Adrian Mehic

中文摘要

本文考察环境事故与投票之间的关系。1986年切尔诺贝利核事故发生后,环保主义政党进入了多个国家的议会。本文将切尔诺贝利核事故作为一项自然实验,该事故造成瑞典各地受到放射性沉降物影响的程度存在差异。我将市镇层面的地表铯污染数据与环保主义政党绿党的选举结果相匹配;该党于1988年当选进入议会。在控制切尔诺贝利核事故发生前民众对核能的看法后,结果显示,高沉降地区的选民更有可能投票支持绿党。详细的个体层面调查数据表明,事故发生后,受沉降物影响地区对核能的抵制有所增强,而这一变化由密切关注当地媒体的选民所推动。

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between environmental accidents and voting. Following the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, environmentalist parties entered parliaments in several nations. This paper uses Chernobyl as a natural experiment creating variation in radioactive fallout exposure over Sweden. I match municipality-level data on cesium ground contamination with election results for the environmentalist Green Party, which was elected to parliament in 1988. After adjusting for pre-Chernobyl views on nuclear power, the results show that voters in high-fallout areas were more likely to vote for the Greens. Detailed individual-level survey data suggests that resistance to nuclear energy increased in fallout-effected areas after the accident, and that this change was driven by voters who followed local media closely.
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