Journal of Economic Literature · 2023 · Daniel Aaronson、Daniel Hartley、Bhashkar Mazumder、Martha Stinson
中文摘要
我们通过将1940年全计数普查中的儿童记录与以下两类数据相匹配，估计20世纪30年代房主贷款公司（HOLC）“划红线”地图的长期影响：1）1974年和1979年美国国税局（IRS）税务数据的全体记录；2）2000年普查长表数据。我们采用两种识别策略，估计HOLC边界两侧信贷获取差异可能产生的长期影响。第一种策略将HOLC边界两侧的跨边界差异，与一组对比边界两侧的差异进行比较；根据统计检验，这组对比边界原先存在的差异与实际边界原先存在的差异在统计上相似。第二种方法仅使用根据我们的统计模型判断最不可能被HOLC选中的边界。我们发现，生活在HOLC边界评级较低一侧的儿童，其受教育水平显著较低，成年后收入较低，且成年后所居住的社区呈现出受教育水平较低、贫困率较高和单亲家庭比例较高的特征。（JEL G21、I26、I32、J13、N32、R23、R31）
Abstract
We estimate the long-run effects of the 1930s Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) redlining maps by linking children in the full count 1940 census to 1) the universe of Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tax data in 1974 and 1979 and 2) the long form 2000 census. We use two identification strategies to estimate the potential long-run effects of differential access to credit along HOLC boundaries. The first strategy compares cross-boundary differences along HOLC boundaries to a comparison group of boundaries that had statistically similar preexisting differences as the actual boundaries. A second approach only uses boundaries that were least likely to have been chosen by the HOLC based on our statistical model. We find that children living on the lower-graded side of HOLC boundaries had significantly lower levels of educational attainment, reduced income in adulthood, and lived in neighborhoods during adulthood characterized by lower educational attainment, higher poverty rates, and higher rates of single-parent households. (JEL G21, I26, I32, J13, N32, R23, R31)