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输电不可能?美国电网脱碳的前景

Transmission Impossible? Prospects for Decarbonizing the US Grid
Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2023 · Lucas W. Davis、Catherine Hausman、Nancy L. Rose

中文摘要

受电网级可再生能源成本下降的鼓舞,近期分析认为,美国利用现有技术可以相对较低的成本在2050年前实现二氧化碳净零排放。尽管可再生能源发电成本已大幅下降,但要整合这些可再生能源,就需要大规模扩建输电设施以输送所发电力。已有越来越多的证据表明,美国的输电能力不足,且当前的年度投资水平远低于以可再生能源为主导的电力系统所需水平。我们阐述了导致新建输电设施困难重重的多种挑战、可能缓解这些挑战的政策应对措施,以及能够替代部分新增输电能力的可能方案。

Abstract

Encouraged by the declining cost of grid-scale renewables, recent analyses conclude that the United States could reach net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 at relatively low cost using currently available technologies. While the cost of renewable generation has declined dramatically, integrating these renewables would require a large expansion in transmission to deliver that power. Already there is growing evidence that the United States has insufficient transmission capacity, and current levels of annual investment are well below what would be required for a renewables-dominated system. We describe a variety of challenges that make it difficult to build new transmission and potential policy responses to mitigate them, as well as possible substitutes for some new transmission capacity.
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