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孤立的美国各州: 本州偏差与州边界对流动性的影响

The Isolated States of America: Home State Bias and the Impact of State Borders on Mobility
Journal of Labor Economics · 2026 · Riley Wilson

中文摘要

我记录了关于美国国内人口流动性的一个新事实:县际迁移与通勤在州界处出现离散式下降。人们迁往同一州内15英里外某县的可能性,是迁往距离相等但跨州的县的三倍。标准经济学解释,如便利设施差异或搬迁成本差异,对此现象的解释力很弱。实验证据表明,许多人存在“本州偏误”,无论是否存在社会联系,都会对州外迁移打折扣。这一模式带来了真实的经济成本,导致地方劳动力市场在遭受负面经济冲击后动态性较弱。

Abstract

I document a new fact about mobility within the United States. County-to-county migration and commuting drop discretely at state borders. People are three times as likely to move to a county 15 miles away in the same state than to an equally distant county across state lines. Standard economic explanations, like differences in amenities or moving costs, have little explanatory power. Experimental evidence suggests many people experience “home state bias” and discount out-of-state moves, independent of whether social ties are present. This pattern has real economic costs, resulting in local labor markets that are less dynamic after negative economic shocks.
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