Annual Review of Economics · 2016 · Johannes F. Schmieder、Till von Wachter
中文摘要
大衰退重新激发了世界各国对失业保险（UI）制度的关注。与此同时，失业保险的理论与测量均取得了重要进展。本文首先运用理论，对失业保险待遇水平和领取期限的福利效应进行统一分析，并推导出失业保险完整负向激励效应的简便表达式。随后，本文讨论基于新近可得的行政数据和准实验研究设计得出的失业保险待遇水平与领取期限对劳动供给影响的最新估计。尽管对这些新估计的综述证实了既有文献所发现的一系列劳动供给负效应，但我们基于模型表明，这些估计并不能完全准确地代理实际的负向激励效应。本文还讨论失业保险研究中若干活跃领域，包括失业保险对劳动力市场总体结果的影响、对就业结果的影响、长期影响、在非标准行为假设下的影响，以及与其他项目的相互作用。我们还指出若干有待进一步研究的领域，包括对失业保险社会价值的估计，以及失业保险在欠发达国家的影响。
Abstract
The Great Recession has renewed interest in unemployment insurance (UI) programs around the world. At the same time, there have been important advances in both theory and measurement of UI. In this review, we first use the theory to present a unified treatment of the welfare effects of UI benefit levels and durations and derive convenient expressions of the full disincentive effect of UI. We then discuss recent estimates of the effect of UI benefit levels and durations on labor supply based on newly available administrative data and quasi-experimental research designs. Although our review of the new estimates confirms the range of negative labor supply effects of the previous literature, we show, based on the model, that these estimates are imperfect proxies for the actual disincentive effects. We also discuss several active areas of research on UI. These include the effect of UI on aggregate labor market outcomes, its effect on job outcomes, its long-term effects, its effects under nonstandard behavioral assumptions, and its interactions with other programs. We isolate several additional areas in need of further research, including estimates of the social value of UI, as well as the effects of UI in less developed countries.