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中国冲击:从劳动力市场对贸易巨变的调整中汲取经验

The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade
Annual Review of Economics · 2016 · David Autor、David Dorn、Gordon Hanson

中文摘要

中国崛起为经济大国,引发了世界贸易格局的划时代转变。与此同时,这也对既有的关于劳动力市场如何应对贸易冲击的诸多实证认识提出了挑战。贸易扩张在带来广受赞誉的消费者利益的同时,也伴随着巨大的调整成本和分配后果。这些影响在受外国竞争冲击的产业集中的地方劳动力市场中最为明显。地方劳动力市场的调整极其缓慢:中国贸易冲击开始后,工资和劳动参与率持续低迷、失业率持续高企,至少长达整整十年。受冲击的劳动者经历了更频繁的工作更替,终身收入也随之下降。在全国层面,正如预期的那样,美国受进口竞争影响较大的产业就业人数有所减少,但其他产业中足以抵消这一降幅的就业增长尚未出现。更深入地理解贸易在何时、何地会产生成本,以及贸易如何、为何可能带来收益,是贸易经济学家和劳动经济学家研究议程中的一项关键任务。

Abstract

China's emergence as a great economic power has induced an epochal shift in patterns of world trade. Simultaneously, it has challenged much of the received empirical wisdom about how labor markets adjust to trade shocks. Alongside the heralded consumer benefits of expanded trade are substantial adjustment costs and distributional consequences. These impacts are most visible in the local labor markets in which the industries exposed to foreign competition are concentrated. Adjustment in local labor markets is remarkably slow, with wages and labor-force participation rates remaining depressed and unemployment rates remaining elevated for at least a full decade after the China trade shock commences. Exposed workers experience greater job churning and reduced lifetime income. At the national level, employment has fallen in the US industries more exposed to import competition, as expected, but offsetting employment gains in other industries have yet to materialize. Better understanding when and where trade is costly, and how and why it may be beneficial, is a key item on the research agenda for trade and labor economists.
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