边缘学生的高中辍学：职业生涯早期后果与劳动力市场结果

中文摘要

我们利用挪威高中一项随机安排的高风险考试，评估考试不及格对一个学业表现处于边缘、且具有政策相关性的学生群体所产生的后果。考试不及格使辍学率增至两倍以上。到30岁时，我们发现其受教育程度较低的证据，但对劳动力市场收入没有显著影响。这或许可以由教育体系中的灵活路径来解释：不及格的学生更有可能转向职业培训，并在职业生涯早期从事个体经营。我们的研究表明边缘学生处于不利地位，并就政策制定者应如何针对这一群体施策提供了证据。

Abstract

We exploit a randomized high-stakes exam in Norwegian high schools to evaluate consequences of exam fail for an academically marginal and policy-relevant group of students. Failing the exam more than doubles the dropout rate. By age 30, we find evidence for lower educational attainment but no significant effects on labor market earnings. This may be explained by flexible pathways in the educational system: failing students are more likely to switch to vocational training and be self-employed in their early careers. We show that marginal students are disadvantaged and provide evidence on how policymakers can target this group.