中文摘要
究竟是什么支撑着美国政府债务的市场价值？我们衡量了估值框架，即人们所认为的支撑债务价值的渠道。我们调查了债券投资者、登记选民以及拥有经济学或金融学研究生学位者，请他们将债务价值分配至根据开放式回答和相关文献归纳出的六种来源。在每个群体中，全球安全资产需求与永久滚动续借合计占感知价值的近一半，因此债务价值在很大程度上依赖投资者的吸纳，而非政府资源。未来基本盈余是教科书所述的债务支撑来源，但即使在受过研究生教育的群体中，也仅获分配约16%的价值；约三分之一的人认为其提供的支撑很少或没有。价值分配在受访者个体内部较为集中，但在受访者之间较为分散，由此形成了不同的信念原型，而这些原型随财政知识水平的变化很小。一个模型说明了为何信念测度至关重要：相同的债务数量和价格安排可能掩盖可出售的公共支撑与抗压力需求方面的差异，进而掩盖债务可持续性方面的差异。对债务可持续性的担忧普遍存在，三个群体均认为未来十年发生危机的概率接近50%。然而，在表达担忧的受访者中，90%的选民表示，这一问题在其投票决策中并非决定性因素；72%的投资者表示，其投资组合未作任何具体调整。
Abstract
What ultimately supports the market value of U.S. government debt? We measure valuation frameworks: the perceived channels that back debt value. We survey bond investors, registered voters, and economics or finance graduate-degree holders, asking them to allocate debt value across six sources derived from open-ended answers and the literature. Global safe-asset demand and permanent rollover together account for almost half of perceived value in every group, so debt value heavily relies on investor absorption rather than on government resources. Future primary surpluses, the textbook debt backing, receive about 16% even among the graduate-trained; roughly one-third say they provide little or no support. Allocations concentrate within respondents but disperse across them, forming belief archetypes that vary little with fiscal knowledge. A model shows why belief elicitation matters: identical debt quantities and price schedules can conceal differences in saleable public backing and stress-resilient demand, and therefore in debt sustainability. Concern about debt sustainability is widespread, and all three groups put the ten-year crisis odds near 50%. However, among respondents expressing concern, 90% of voters report that it is not decisive in their voting decisions, and 72% of investors report no concrete portfolio change.