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自杀危机热线对健康的影响:来自988实施的证据

The Impact of Suicide Hotlines on Health: Evidence from 988 Implementation
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · Benjamin Hansen、Niketana Kannan、Jonathan Zhang

中文摘要

本文考察《全国自杀危机热线指定法》的影响。该法于2022年7月启用全国统一的988呼叫号码,并为自杀危机呼叫中心划拨联邦资金。我们采用双重差分设计,利用各州在危机热线服务能力缺口方面原已存在的差异;该缺口以988启用前转接至某州、但未在该州得到接听的呼叫数量衡量。在基线服务能力缺口较大的州,988的推行显著改善了危机热线的运营:这些州在本州接听了更多呼叫,并提高了本州接听率。然而,这些运营改善并未转化为可检测到的自杀死亡率下降。死亡率估计足够精确,足以排除短期内幅度不大的下降。我们也未发现更广泛的人群心理健康结果有统计显著的改善。这些发现表明,仅扩大危机热线服务能力可能不足以减少自杀死亡。

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the National Suicide Hotline Designation Act, which introduced the universal 988 calling code and earmarked federal funding to suicide crisis call centers in July 2022. We use a difference-in-differences design that leverages pre-existing cross-state variation in crisis line capacity gaps, measured by the number of pre-988 calls routed to a state but not answered in-state. The rollout substantially improved crisis line operations in states with larger baseline capacity gaps: these states answered more calls in-state and increased their in-state answer rates. However, these operational gains did not translate into detectable reductions in suicide mortality. The mortality estimates are precise enough to rule out even modest short-run reductions. We also find no statistically significant improvements in broader population mental health outcomes. These findings suggest that expanding crisis line capacity alone may be insufficient to reduce suicide deaths.
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