美国白人死亡率上升与二战后出生队列的健康下降

中文摘要

我提供证据表明, 美国白人死亡率近期的上升, 根源在于二战后出生队列的健康状况相对于此前趋势有所恶化。我通过强制年龄对死亡率的影响遵循对数线性的 Gompertz (冈珀茨) 形式, 来识别队列健康的作用。1985 年至 2015 年间每一年的对数死亡率, 均在白人男性的 1946 年出生队列和白人女性的 1949 年出生队列处呈现斜率变化, 这与健康恶化恰好始于这些出生队列相一致。队列健康恶化的证据早于阿片类药物危机的出现。

Abstract

<h3>Abstract</h3> I show evidence that recent increases in mortality of white Americans are rooted in a decline in the health of cohorts born after World War II, relative to the prior trend. I identify the role of cohort health by imposing the impact of age on mortality to follow the log-linear, Gompertz form. Log mortality rates in every year between 1985 and 2015 exhibit slope changes centered at the 1946 cohort for white men and the 1949 cohort for white women, consistent with a health decline beginning precisely with those cohorts. Evidence of the cohort health decline predates the opioid epidemic.