NBER Working Papers · 2026 · Justin E. Holz、Ricardo Perez-Truglia、Andrew Simon、Alejandro Zentner
中文摘要
应对税收制度往往需要纳税人可能并不具备的信息和判断能力。尽管纳税人有时会求助于人类专家，但人工智能可以以低得多的成本提供相当的协助。然而，目前尚无因果证据表明纳税人如何使用人工智能税务代理，也不清楚这些工具如何影响其行为。我们在房产税申诉情境下开展了一项田野实验，以填补这一空白。我们从得克萨斯州达拉斯县招募了645户家庭作为样本。所有家庭均可访问一个网站，该网站提供个性化信息、申报说明以及申诉所需的支持性证据。其中一半家庭被随机分配使用另一个版本的网站，该版本还包含一个人工智能聊天机器人，能够回答问题，并根据其具体情况提供指导。聊天机器人的使用率很高：78%的家庭发起了对话。获得聊天机器人使用权限使不借助人类代理提出申诉的概率提高了9.1个百分点，从41.4%升至50.5%。来自点击流数据和对话记录的证据表明，聊天机器人帮助家庭运用判断力，即评估现有信息并据此采取行动。在处境较不利的家庭中，提出申诉的增幅较小，这提供了提示性证据，表明聊天机器人扩大了现有差距。我们的结果展示了人工智能税务协助的潜力，同时强调，谁能从中受益不仅取决于能否获得使用权限，还取决于纳税人如何使用这项技术。
Abstract
Navigating the tax system often requires information and judgment that taxpayers may lack. Although taxpayers sometimes rely on human experts, AI could provide comparable assistance at substantially lower cost. Yet there is no causal evidence on how taxpayers use AI tax agents or how these tools affect their behavior. We fill this gap with a field experiment in the context of property tax appeals. We recruited a sample of 645 households in Dallas County, Texas. All households received access to a website providing personalized information, filing instructions, and supporting evidence for an appeal. Half were randomly assigned to a version of the website that also included an AI chatbot capable of answering questions and providing guidance tailored to their circumstances. Chatbot take-up was high: 78% initiated a conversation. Access to the chatbot increased the probability of filing an appeal without a human agent by 9.1 pp, from 41.4% to 50.5%. Evidence from clickstream data and conversation transcripts suggests that the chatbot helped households exercise judgment—that is, evaluate and act on the available information. The increase in appeal filing was smaller among less-advantaged households, providing suggestive evidence that the chatbot widened existing disparities. Our results demonstrate the potential of AI tax assistance while highlighting that who benefits depends not only on access, but also on how taxpayers use the technology.