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次优公平:假阳性与假阴性之间的权衡

Second-Best Fairness: The Trade-Off between False Positives and False Negatives
American Economic Review · 2023 · Alexander W. Cappelen、Cornelius Cappelen、Bertil Tungodden

中文摘要

经济学关注的一个核心问题,是如何在次优情形下设计最优政策;这往往需要在给予一些人超过其应得水平(假阳性)与给予另一些人低于其应得水平(假阴性)之间进行权衡。本文基于在美国和挪威开展的大规模实验研究,为人们的次优公平偏好提供了新的证据。大多数人相较假阳性更关注假阴性,但我们发现,两国之间以及不同政治立场的人群之间,次优公平偏好存在显著异质性。这些发现有助于阐明社会保险和再分配的政治经济学。(JEL D63、D72、D78、H23、I38)

Abstract

A main focus in economics is how to design optimal policies in second-best situations, which often requires a trade-off between giving some individuals more than they deserve, false positives, and others less than they deserve, false negatives. This paper provides novel evidence on people’s second-best fairness preferences from large-scale experimental studies in the United States and Norway. The majority of people are more concerned with false negatives than with false positives, but we document substantial heterogeneity in second-best fairness preferences between the countries and across the political spectrum. The findings shed light on the political economy of social insurance and redistribution. (JEL D63, D72, D78, H23, I38)
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