American Economic Review · 2023 · Gabriel Chodorow-Reich、Loukas Karabarbounis、Rohan Kekre
中文摘要
希腊经济在2007年之前经历了繁荣，随后发生了规模与持续时间均前所未有的崩溃。我们运用一个丰富的估计动态一般均衡模型，评估繁荣与衰退的成因。外部需求和政府消费推动了产出繁荣，而转移支付则推动了消费繁荣。与标准叙事不同，工资和价格在衰退期间均大幅下降。税收政策解释了产出衰退的最大部分，而不可保险风险则解释了消费和工资的下降。我们评估了财政调整的构成和救助如何影响这场危机。（JEL E21, E23, E24, E32, E62, F41, H20）
Abstract
Greece experienced a boom until 2007, followed by a collapse of unprecedented magnitude and persistence. We assess the sources of the boom and the bust, using a rich estimated dynamic general equilibrium model. External demand and government consumption fueled the boom in production, whereas transfers fueled the boom in consumption. Different from the standard narrative, wages and prices declined substantially during the bust. Tax policy accounts for the largest fraction of the bust in production, whereas uninsurable risk accounts for the bust in consumption and wages. We assess how the composition of fiscal adjustment and bailouts affected the crisis. (JEL E21, E23, E24, E32, E62, F41, H20)