市场一体化的投资效应：来自智利可再生能源扩张的证据

中文摘要

我们研究市场一体化对可再生能源扩张的投资效应。我们的理论强调，市场一体化不仅通过贸易利得提高配置效率，还会激励对可再生能源发电厂的新投资。为检验我们的理论预测，我们考察了智利电力市场近期的电网扩建如何改变发电量、批发电价、发电成本和可再生能源投资。随后，我们构建了一个发电厂进入的结构模型，以量化存在和不存在投资效应时市场一体化的影响。我们发现，智利的市场一体化使太阳能发电量增加约180%，节约发电成本8%，并使碳排放减少5%。如果没有市场一体化，相当一部分可再生能源发电不会发生。我们的研究结果表明，忽视这些投资效应将大幅低估市场一体化的收益及其在扩大可再生能源规模方面的重要作用。

Abstract

We study the investment effects of market integration on renewable energy expansion. Our theory highlights that market integration not only improves allocative efficiency by gains from trade but also incentivizes new investment in renewable power plants. To test our theoretical predictions, we examine how recent grid expansions in the Chilean electricity market changed electricity production, wholesale prices, generation costs, and renewable investments. We then build a structural model of power plant entry to quantify the impact of market integration with and without the investment effects. We find that the market integration in Chile increased solar generation by around 180%, saved generation costs by 8%, and reduced carbon emissions by 5%. A substantial amount of renewable entry would not have occurred in the absence of market integration. Our findings suggest that ignoring these investment effects would substantially understate the benefits of market integration and its important role in expanding renewable energy.