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动态模型中的工具变量方法

An Instrumental Variable Approach to Dynamic Models
Review of Economic Studies · 2022 · Steven Berry、Giovanni Compiani

中文摘要

我们提出了一类在具有序列相关不可观测变量的动态模型中进行识别和推断的新方法,这类不可观测变量通常意味着状态变量在计量上是内生的。在产业组织的语境中,这些状态变量往往反映计量上内生的市场结构。我们提出使用广义工具变量方法,来识别那些与工具变量(IV)约束相一致的动态策略函数。这些策略函数在扩展流行的“两步法”的基础上,进而识别出一组与动态模型、IV约束和数据相一致的结构参数。我们提供了针对单人厂商和寡头垄断情形的计算示例。我们还呈现了一项简单的实证分析,该分析除其他内容外,支持了一项涉及沉没成本增加的环境政策的反事实研究。

Abstract

Abstract We present a new class of methods for identification and inference in dynamic models with serially correlated unobservables, which typically imply that state variables are econometrically endogenous. In the context of Industrial Organization, these state variables often reflect econometrically endogenous market structure. We propose the use of Generalized Instrument Variables methods to identify those dynamic policy functions that are consistent with instrumental variable (IV) restrictions. Extending popular “two-step” methods, these policy functions then identify a set of structural parameters that are consistent with the dynamic model, the IV restrictions and the data. We provide computed illustrations to both single-agent and oligopoly examples. We also present a simple empirical analysis that, among other things, supports the counterfactual study of an environmental policy entailing an increase in sunk costs.
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