The effects of labor market opportunities on education: The case of a female hiring ceiling in Iran
中文摘要
本文估计了劳动力市场机会减少对女性大学教育结果的影响。为此，我们利用伊朗2010年一项限制公共部门雇佣女性的政策所产生的断点，该政策大幅恶化了受过大学教育女性的就业机会。我们发现，这项改革立即使女性的大学就读率降低了11.4个百分点，同时使男性的大学就读率小幅上升。我们还发现，改革后就业概率下降幅度较大的大学专业中，女性的入学人数有所减少。相比之下，我们未观察到该改革对其他结果产生任何显著影响，包括高中教育决策、高中毕业生的劳动供给模式，以及对私营部门劳动力市场的溢出效应。最后，我们注意到，未上大学者更有可能在较年轻的年龄结婚和/或生育子女。本文表明，即使在一个社会高度保守且女性就业机会较少的国家，劳动力市场回报也是决定是否追求教育的重要因素。
Abstract
This paper estimates the effects of reduced labor market opportunities on women’s college education outcomes. To do so, we exploit discontinuity generated by a 2010 policy in Iran limiting female hiring in the public sector, which greatly worsened employment opportunities for college-educated women. We find that the reform immediately reduced women’s college attendance by 11.4% points while it slightly increased men’s college attendance. We also find that it decreased women’s enrollment in college majors wherein employment probabilities are more reduced after the reform. In contrast, we do not observe any significant impact on other outcomes, including high school education decisions, labor supply patterns of high school graduates, and spillover effects into the private sector labor market. Lastly, we note that those who do not attend college are more likely to get married and/or have children at younger ages. This paper shows labor market returns as an important determinant of education pursuit even in a country, where the society is highly conservative and women’s employment possibilities are low.