中文摘要
Deepening reform of the household registration (hukou) system is an effective means of unlocking the potential of domestic demand. This paper primarily investigates the effect of hukou status conversion on household consumption mobility. First, using panel data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), the paper systematically analyzes the characteristics and evolution of household consumption mobility in China through consumption transition matrices, the Shorrocks index, and the quality of consumption mobility. It then examines the effect of hukou status conversion on household consumption mobility and the underlying mechanisms. The findings are as follows. (1) Household consumption mobility in China exhibits an overall downward trend. Compared with households whose hukou status remains unchanged, households experiencing hukou status conversion display greater consumption mobility, a smaller decline in such mobility, and higher-quality mobility. (2) Hukou status conversion significantly enhances household consumption mobility. The underlying mechanism is that it brings households more economic opportunities, including greater access to nonagricultural employment and to a wider range of products and services that increase consumption diversity, while also strengthening household confidence in the future. However, the effect of hukou status conversion on consumption mobility is also constrained by consumption inertia. (3) In relative terms, the effect of hukou status conversion on consumption mobility is more pronounced among households with higher income and net assets, higher educational attainment, and residence in regions with higher levels of economic development. This paper provides new micro-level evidence on the consumption-boosting effect of relaxing hukou-system constraints in the course of Chinese modernization. It also offers more targeted policy implications for facilitating social mobility and improving people's well-being as reform is further deepened across the board.
Abstract
深化户籍制度改革是释放内需潜力的有效举措。本文主要研究户籍身份转换对家庭消费流动性的影响。首先，基于中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）面板数据，本文通过消费转移矩阵、Shorrocks指数以及消费流动质量系统分析了中国家庭消费流动性的特征和演变趋势。随后，本文考察了户籍身份转换对家庭消费流动性的影响和作用机制。研究发现：（1）中国家庭消费流动性整体呈现下降趋势，相比户籍身份不变的家庭，户籍身份转换的家庭具有更高的消费流动性，且消费流动性下降幅度更小、质量更高；（2）户籍身份转换显著提升了家庭消费流动性，其作用机制在于户籍身份转换为家庭带来了更多的经济机会，包括提高非农就业机会、享受更多产品和服务以增加消费多样性，同时提升家庭对未来的信心，但户籍身份转换对消费流动性的影响也受到消费惯性的约束；（3）相对而言，户籍身份转换对消费流动性的影响在收入和净资产较高、受教育程度较高以及处在经济发展水平较高地区的家庭中更明显。本文为理解中国式现代化进程中放松户籍制度约束的消费提振效应提供了新的微观证据，也为在进一步全面深化改革中畅通社会流动渠道、增进民生福祉提供了更具针对性的政策启示。