American Economic Review · 2023 · Christian K. Wolf
中文摘要
本文给出了私人支出变化在一般均衡中恰好像财政总支出变化那样被吸纳的条件。在这种需求等价下，研究者可以利用财政乘数的时间序列证据，恢复横截面中所识别的私人支出冲击在一般均衡下的“缺失截距”。从该理论的视角来看，约为1的财政乘数时间序列估计意味着缺失截距接近于零——本文以2008年退税为例对此加以说明。本文还讨论了这种加总方法在需求等价遭到合理违背时的稳健性。(JEL E12, E21, E24, E62, G51, H24, H31)
Abstract
I give conditions under which changes in private spending are accommodated in general equilibrium exactly like changes in aggregate fiscal expenditure. Under such demand equivalence, researchers can use time series evidence on fiscal multipliers to recover the general equilibrium “missing intercept” of shocks to private spending identified in the cross section. Through the lens of this theory, time series estimates of a fiscal multiplier around one suggest a missing intercept close to zero—an observation that I illustrate with an application to the 2008 tax rebates. I also discuss the robustness of this aggregation approach to plausible violations of demand equivalence. (JEL E12, E21, E24, E62, G51, H24, H31)