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宏观消费调整的微观解剖

The Micro Anatomy of Macro Consumption Adjustments
American Economic Review · 2023 · Rafael Guntin、Pablo Ottonello、Diego Pérez

中文摘要

我们通过微观层面的模式研究了以总消费大幅调整为特征的危机。我们记录了收入分布中消费调整的横截面模式,发现高收入家庭的消费调整幅度很大,其消费-收入弹性与平均水平相似或更大。我们构建了一个收入波动下消费的异质性主体开放经济模型,并表明数据模式在很大程度上与将总消费动态归因于总持久收入变化的理论相一致。我们还讨论了我们的发现对基于家庭借贷约束收紧的理论的启示,并分析了政策启示。

Abstract

We study crises characterized by large adjustments of aggregate consumption through their microlevel patterns. We document the cross-sectional patterns of consumption adjustment across the income distribution and find large adjustments for top-income households, who exhibit consumption-income elasticities similar to or larger than the average. We construct a heterogeneous-agent open economy model of consumption under income fluctuations and show that the data patterns are largely consistent with theories that attribute the dynamics of aggregate consumption to changes in aggregate permanent income. We also discuss our findings’ implications for theories based on the tightening of households’ borrowing constraints and analyze policy implications. (JEL D31, E21, E32, F33, G51, O11, O12)
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