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鼓励农村—城市迁移的福利效应

The Welfare Effects of Encouraging Rural–Urban Migration
Econometrica · 2023 · David Lagakos、Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak、Michael Waugh

中文摘要

本文研究发展中国家鼓励农村—城市迁移的福利效应。为此,我们构建并分析了一个包含丰富迁移动机的动态一般均衡迁移模型。我们对该模型进行估计,以复现一项在孟加拉国农村地区补贴季节性迁移的田野实验结果;该实验使迁移和消费均显著增加。我们表明,迁移补贴带来的福利收益源于为脆弱的农村家庭提供更好的保险,而非通过放松那些在城市地区具有高生产率却滞留农村者所面临的信贷约束,来纠正空间错配。

Abstract

This paper studies the welfare effects of encouraging rural–urban migration in the developing world. To do so, we build and analyze a dynamic general‐equilibrium model of migration that features a rich set of migration motives. We estimate the model to replicate the results of a field experiment that subsidized seasonal migration in rural Bangladesh, leading to significant increases in migration and consumption. We show that the welfare gains from migration subsidies come from providing better insurance for vulnerable rural households rather than from correcting spatial misallocation by relaxing credit constraints for those with high productivity in urban areas that are stuck in rural areas.
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