Measuring the Equilibrium Impacts of Credit: Evidence from the Indian Microfinance Crisis
中文摘要
2010年10月，印度安得拉邦政府颁布了一项紧急法令，使该邦的小额信贷活动全面停滞，并对贷款人的流动性造成了全国性的冲击，尤其是对在受影响邦有贷款的贷款人。我们利用小额信贷市场的这一大规模混乱，在一般均衡框架下识别了农村劳动力市场中信贷供给减少对消费、收入和就业的因果影响。使用来自25家独立的营利性小额贷款机构的专有地区级数据集，并与全国抽样调查的家庭数据相匹配，我们发现地区级信贷供给的减少与临时日工资、家庭工资收入和消费的显著下降相关。我们发现信贷存在较大的消费乘数效应，这可能由两个渠道驱动——总需求和商业投资。我们校准了一个包含这两个渠道的简单的两时期两部门农村经济模型，并表明我们的工资结果的量级与该模型的预测一致。
Abstract
Abstract In October 2010, the state government of Andhra Pradesh, India, issued an emergency ordinance, bringing microfinance activities in the state to a complete halt and causing a nationwide shock to the liquidity of lenders, especially those with loans in the affected state. We use this massive dislocation in the microfinance market to identify the causal impacts of a reduction in credit supply on consumption, earnings, and employment in general equilibrium in rural labor markets. Using a proprietary district-level data set from 25 separate, for-profit microlenders matched with household data from the National Sample Survey, we find that district-level reductions in credit supply are associated with significant decreases in casual daily wages, household wage earnings, and consumption. We find a substantial consumption multiplier from credit that is likely driven by two channels—aggregate demand and business investment. We calibrate a simple two-period, two-sector model of the rural economy that incorporates both channels and show that the magnitude of our wage results is consistent with the model’s predictions.