预测误差、监禁与暴力犯罪：来自将检察官调查与法庭记录相关联的证据
Prediction Errors, Incarceration, and Violent Crime: Evidence from Linking Prosecutor Surveys to Court Records
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2026 · [{"name": "Emma Harrington", "affiliation": ["University of Virginia"]}, {"name": "William Murdock", "affiliation": ["Uczelnia Łazarskiego"]}, {"name": "Hannah Shaffer", "affiliation": []}]
中文摘要
监禁往往以被告未来的犯罪风险为由而正当化。关于犯罪预测因素的偏误信念在多大程度上扭曲了监禁决策？我们就暴力再逮捕率如何随被告年龄和犯罪史变化对检察官进行了调查。受访检察官存在系统性错误：他们低估了再逮捕率随年龄的下降幅度，高估了其随犯罪史增加的上升幅度。通过将检察官的信念与其准随机分配的案件相联系，我们表明，检察官的信念可预测其案件中按被告年龄和犯罪史划分的监禁模式。最后，我们发现，信念更准确的检察官能够同时降低暴力再逮捕率与监禁率。（JEL D83, K14, K41, K42）
Abstract
Incarceration is often justified by a defendant’s risk of future crime. To what extent do biased beliefs about predictors of crime distort incarceration decisions? We survey prosecutors about how violent rearrest rates vary by defendant age and criminal history. Surveyed prosecutors make systematic errors: They underestimate the decline in rearrest with age and overestimate the increase with criminal history. By linking prosecutors’ beliefs to their quasi-randomly assigned cases, we show that prosecutors’ beliefs predict incarceration patterns by defendant age and criminal history in their cases. Finally, we find that prosecutors with more accurate beliefs simultaneously reduce violent rearrest and incarceration. (JEL D83, K14, K41, K42)