躲避归零日: 开普敦的干旱、适应与不平等

Journal of the European Economic Association · 2025 · [{"name": "Alexander Abajian", "affiliation": ["Yale University"]}, {"name": "Cassandra Cole", "affiliation": ["Harvard University", "Harvard University Press"]}, {"name": "B. Kelsey Jack", "affiliation": ["University of California, Berkeley"]}, {"name": "Kyle C. Meng", "affiliation": ["University of California, Santa Barbara"]}, {"name": "Martine Visser", "affiliation": ["University of Cape Town"]}]

中文摘要

摘要南非开普敦一场近乎灾难性的干旱，揭示了气候变化对公共提供的公用事业服务的三点影响。第一，为削减总体用水需求，公用事业单位提高了水价，促使较富裕家庭大幅减少用水。在干旱之前，其公共管道用水量是较贫困家庭的两倍；而在干旱高峰期，其用水量已低于较贫困家庭。第二，这种差异化的需求下降，部分源于较富裕家庭从公共供水转向由私人出资的地下水。这种私人适应行为既降低了公用事业单位的总收入，又将成本转嫁给较贫困家庭，且相关后果在干旱缓解之后依然持续。第三，政策干预可缓解私人适应所带来的部分财政与分配影响。这些发现凸显出，在公共提供的商品与服务情境下，气候适应会如何产生带有公平性后果的金钱外部性与环境外部性。

Abstract

Abstract A near-catastrophic drought in Cape Town, South Africa, illustrates three implications of climate change for publicly provided utility services. First, to reduce aggregate water demand, the public utility increased prices, leading to large demand reductions by richer households. Prior to the drought, they used twice the public piped water of poorer households. At the peak of the drought, they use less. Second, some of the differential demand reduction comes from richer households substituting away from public water toward privately financed groundwater. This private adaptation both lowers the public utility’s total revenue and shifts costs onto poorer households, consequences that persist after the drought abates. Third, policy interventions mitigate some of the fiscal and distributional impacts of private adaptation. These findings highlight how climate adaptation, in the context of publicly provided goods and services, can create pecuniary and environmental externalities with equity consequences.