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避开“零水日”:开普敦的干旱、适应与不平等

Dodging Day Zero: Drought, Adaptation, and Inequality in Cape Town
Journal of the European Economic Association · 2025 · Alexander Abajian、Cassandra Cole、B. Kelsey Jack、Kyle C. Meng、Martine Visser

中文摘要

南非开普敦一场近乎酿成灾难的干旱,揭示了气候变化对公共提供的公用事业服务的三方面影响。第一,为降低总用水需求,公共事业机构提高了水价,导致较富裕家庭大幅减少用水。干旱前,他们使用的公共管道供水量是较贫困家庭的两倍;干旱高峰期,他们的用水量反而更少。第二,需求减少幅度的部分差异,来自较富裕家庭以私人出资的地下水替代公共供水。这种私人适应既降低了公共事业机构的总收入,也将成本转嫁给较贫困家庭,且这些后果在干旱缓解后仍然持续。第三,政策干预缓解了私人适应带来的部分财政与分配影响。这些发现凸显出,在公共提供产品与服务的背景下,气候适应如何能够产生具有公平后果的金钱外部性与环境外部性。

Abstract

Abstract A near-catastrophic drought in Cape Town, South Africa, illustrates three implications of climate change for publicly provided utility services. First, to reduce aggregate water demand, the public utility increased prices, leading to large demand reductions by richer households. Prior to the drought, they used twice the public piped water of poorer households. At the peak of the drought, they use less. Second, some of the differential demand reduction comes from richer households substituting away from public water toward privately financed groundwater. This private adaptation both lowers the public utility’s total revenue and shifts costs onto poorer households, consequences that persist after the drought abates. Third, policy interventions mitigate some of the fiscal and distributional impacts of private adaptation. These findings highlight how climate adaptation, in the context of publicly provided goods and services, can create pecuniary and environmental externalities with equity consequences.
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