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全民流动:20世纪具有代表性的代际流动性估计

Mobility for All: Representative Intergenerational Mobility Estimates over the Twentieth Century
Journal of Political Economy · 2024 · Elisa Jácome、Ilyana Kuziemko、Suresh Naidu

中文摘要

我们利用具有代表性的美国本土出生人口样本,估计代际相对流动性的长期趋势。通过统一整合所有同时包含父亲职业和本人家庭收入的调查,我们构建了一项流动性指标,从而能够将非白人和女性纳入对1910年代至1970年代出生队列的分析。我们发现,流动性在1910年代至1940年代出生队列之间有所上升,而黑人与白人收入差距的缩小解释了这一升幅的大约一半。我们还发现,对于20世纪出生队列,排除非裔美国人、尤其是非裔女性,会显著高估流动性水平,同时低估流动性从1910年代到1940年代的升幅。

Abstract

We estimate long-run trends in intergenerational relative mobility for representative samples of the US-born population. Harmonizing all surveys that include father’s occupation and own family income, we develop a mobility measure that allows for the inclusion of nonwhite individuals and women for the 1910s–1970s birth cohorts. We show that mobility increases between the 1910s and 1940s cohorts and that the decline of Black-white income gaps explains about half of this rise. We also find that excluding Black Americans, particularly women, considerably overstates the level of mobility for twentieth-century birth cohorts while simultaneously understating its increase between the 1910s and 1940s.
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