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无需泰勒原理的决定性

Determinacy without the Taylor Principle
Journal of Political Economy · 2023 · George-Marios Angeletos、Chen Lian

中文摘要

我们对货币政策的理解因不确定性问题而变得复杂:名义利率的相同路径与通胀和产出的多重均衡路径相一致。我们提供了一种可能的解决方案,证明了社会记忆和跨期协调中的微小摩擦可以消除这种不确定性。在我们的扰动下,唯一均衡与由泰勒原理选出的均衡相同,但它不再依赖于泰勒原理;货币政策仅发挥稳定作用;且即使货币政策是被动时,财政政策也必须是李嘉图的。

Abstract

Our understanding of monetary policy is complicated by an indeterminacy problem: the same path for the nominal interest rate is consistent with multiple equilibrium paths for inflation and output. We offer a potential resolution by showing that small frictions in social memory and intertemporal coordination can remove this indeterminacy. Under our perturbations, the unique equilibrium is the same as that selected by the Taylor principle, but it no more relies on it; monetary policy is left to play only a stabilization role; and fiscal policy needs to be Ricardian even when monetary policy is passive.
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