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家庭负债的分布与货币政策传导

The Distribution of Households' Indebtedness and the Transmission of Monetary Policy
Review of Economics and Statistics · 2021 · Fergus Cumming、Paul Hubert

中文摘要

本文考察总消费对货币政策的动态反应是否取决于家庭债务相对于收入的分布。利用英国贷款层面的微观数据,我们提出一种新方法,用以识别消费平滑能力受限的家庭所占比例。通过利用时间和横截面上的变异,我们发现,当高负债家庭占比较大时,消费对货币政策的反应更强,但未发现这种反应相对于总体债务收入比水平存在状态依赖性。研究结果凸显了家庭异质性在理解货币政策向总消费传导方面的作用。

Abstract

Abstract We investigate whether the dynamic response of aggregate consumption to monetary policy depends on the distribution of household debt relative to income. Using U.K. loan-level microdata, we propose a novel approach to isolate the fraction of households with a limited ability to smooth consumption. By exploiting time and cross-sectional variation, we show that consumption responds more to monetary policy when the share of highly indebted households is large, but find no state contingency with respect to the overall level of debt-to-income. Our results highlight the role of household heterogeneity for understanding monetary transmission to aggregate consumption.
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