央行如何控制通胀? 困惑者指南
How Do Central Banks Control Inflation? A Guide for the Perplexed
Journal of Economic Literature · 2026 · [{"name": "Laura Castillo-Martinez", "affiliation": ["Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis"]}, {"name": "Ricardo Reis", "affiliation": ["London School of Economics and Political Science"]}]
中文摘要
中央银行的首要目标是价格稳定。它们所使用的工具包括对准备金支付的利息、资产负债表的规模与构成, 以及向财政当局分配的股息。我们描述了论证中央银行有能力控制通胀的经济理论, 并结合历史记录讨论这些理论的相对有效性。我们将各种替代方法呈现为彼此一致, 而非相互冲突的意识形态阵营。尽管利率设定往往可能更优, 但同时具备货币主义支柱与财政支持至关重要; 而且在某些时候, 盯住汇率或将债务货币化是不可避免的。(JEL E31, E43, E52, E58, E62, F31, G21)
Abstract
Central banks have a primary goal of price stability. They pursue it using tools that include the interest they pay on reserves, the size and the composition of their balance sheet, and the dividends they distribute to the fiscal authority. We describe the economic theories that justify the central bank’s ability to control inflation and discuss their relative effectiveness in light of the historical record. We present alternative approaches as consistent with each other, as opposed to conflicting ideological camps. While interest-rate setting may often be superior, having both a monetarist pillar and fiscal support is essential, and at times pegging the exchange rate or monetizing the debt is inevitable. (JEL E31, E43, E52, E58, E62, F31, G21)