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宏观经济稳定中的失业保险

Unemployment Insurance in Macroeconomic Stabilization
Review of Economic Studies · 2022 · Rohan Kekre

中文摘要

我在一个具有不完全市场、搜寻摩擦和名义刚性的一般均衡框架中研究失业保险(UI)。如果失业者的边际消费倾向高于就业者,或者经济主体因未来收入风险而进行预防性储蓄,提高失业保险的慷慨程度会增加消费的总需求。除非货币政策提高名义利率,否则这将提高产出和就业。在对2008—2014年美国经济的分析中,失业保险福利延长的同期产出乘数约为1。若无这些延长措施,失业率最高可能会高出0.4个百分点。

Abstract

Abstract I study unemployment insurance (UI) in general equilibrium with incomplete markets, search frictions, and nominal rigidities. An increase in generosity raises the aggregate demand for consumption if the unemployed have a higher marginal propensity to consume than the employed or if agents precautionary save in light of future income risk. This raises output and employment unless monetary policy raises the nominal interest rate. In an analysis of the U.S. economy over 2008–2014, UI benefit extensions had a contemporaneous output multiplier around 1. The unemployment rate would have been as much as 0.4 pp higher absent these extensions.
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