Review of Economic Studies · 2022 · Kelly Bishop、Jonathan D. Ketcham、Nicolai V. Kuminoff
中文摘要
我们研究长期累积暴露于空气中的细颗粒物（PM2.5）是否会影响个体首次被诊断为阿尔茨海默病或相关痴呆症的概率。我们追踪了2001年至2013年间65岁及以上美国人的健康状况、居住地和PM2.5暴露情况。《清洁空气法》监管范围的扩大导致个体随后所受PM2.5暴露产生准随机变化。我们利用这些法规，为个体层面的十年期PM2.5暴露构造工具变量，并将其用于灵活的Probit模型；该模型还考虑了基于生存状况可能产生的任何潜在样本选择问题。我们发现，十年期PM2.5浓度每增加1 µg/m³，新诊断为痴呆症的概率平均增加2.15个百分点（pp）。在其他条件相同的情况下，我们发现，对女性、年龄较大者以及具有更多痴呆症临床风险因素者，其影响更大。这些影响在低于现行监管阈值时仍然存在。
Abstract
Abstract We study whether long-term cumulative exposure to airborne small particulate matter (PM2.5) affects the probability that an individual receives a new diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease or related dementias. We track the health, residential location, and PM2.5 exposures of Americans aged sixty-five and above from 2001 through 2013. The expansion of Clean Air Act regulations led to quasi-random variation in individuals’ subsequent exposures to PM2.5. We leverage these regulations to construct instrumental variables for individual-level decadal PM2.5 that we use within flexible probit models that also account for any potential sample selection based on survival. We find that a 1 µg/m3 increase in decadal PM2.5 increases the probability of a new dementia diagnosis by an average of 2.15 percentage points (pp). All else equal, we find larger effects for women, older people, and people with more clinical risk factors for dementia. These effects persist below current regulatory thresholds.