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有限执行下的财政规则与相机决策

Fiscal Rules and Discretion Under Limited Enforcement
Econometrica · 2022 · Marina Halac、Pierre Yared

中文摘要

我们研究一个财政政策模型,其中政府对公共支出存在现时偏向。社会选择一项财政规则,以在约束政府不过度支出的承诺收益与赋予其灵活性以应对其私下观察到的支出价值冲击之间进行权衡。与既有研究不同,我们考察有限执行条件下的规则:政府拥有完全的政策相机决策权,只能通过实施联合且有界的惩罚来激励其遵守规则。我们表明,最优激励必须采取砰-砰式(全有或全无)的形式。此外,在满足某一分布条件下,最优规则是一种最大程度执行的赤字上限,一旦违反即触发最大可行惩罚。当且仅当可用惩罚较弱且此类冲击相对不太可能发生时,违反规则才在足够高的冲击下最优地发生。我们推导了比较静态结果,说明应如何根据环境特征校准规则。

Abstract

We study a fiscal policy model in which the government is present‐biased towards public spending. Society chooses a fiscal rule to trade off the benefit of committing the government to not overspend against the benefit of granting it flexibility to react to privately observed shocks to the value of spending. Unlike prior work, we examine rules under limited enforcement: the government has full policy discretion and can only be incentivized to comply with a rule via the use of penalties which are joint and bounded. We show that optimal incentives must be bang‐bang. Moreover, under a distributional condition, the optimal rule is a maximally enforced deficit limit, triggering the maximum feasible penalty whenever violated. Violation optimally occurs under high enough shocks if and only if available penalties are weak and such shocks are relatively unlikely. We derive comparative statics showing how rules should be calibrated to features of the environment.
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