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我们或多或少都是行为性的:消费者决策分类学

We Are All Behavioural, More, or Less: A Taxonomy of Consumer Decision-Making
Review of Economic Studies · 2022 · Victor Stango、Jonathan Zinman

中文摘要

我们考察了17种行为偏误如何彼此相关,如何与风险偏好和时间偏好的三种标准度量、认知技能、人格特质及人口统计学特征相关,以及如何与家庭金融、福祉和健康方面的结果相关。在我们的全国代表性面板数据中,大多数消费者表现出多种偏误,且存在显著的个体间异质性。偏误在同一人内部呈正相关,在调整测量误差后尤其如此。基于这一相关结构,我们将20项偏误与标准偏好度量降维为四个行为共同因子。每个行为共同因子反映一组关于信念、决策质量、贴现或风险/不确定性态度的相关偏误。前两个行为共同因子之间也强烈相关(正相关),且与认知技能强烈相关(负相关)。前三个行为共同因子和认知技能与各种结果均按预期方向强烈相关。我们的结果支持基于加工过程的模型,即认知和/或注意力的基本局限会产生多种偏误,并对理论与实践具有若干其他启示。

Abstract

Abstract We examine how 17 behavioural biases relate to each other, to three standard measures of risk and time preferences, to cognitive skills, personality, and demographics, and to outcomes in household finance, well-being, and health. Most consumers in our nationally representative panel data exhibit multiple biases, with substantial cross-person heterogeneity. Biases are positively correlated within person, especially after adjusting for measurement error. From that correlation structure, we reduce our 20 bias and standard preference measures to four behavioural common factors. Each BCF reflects a group of related biases regarding beliefs, decision quality, discounting, or risk/uncertainty attitudes. The first two BCFs also strongly correlate with each other (positively) and cognitive skills (negatively). The first three BCFs and cognitive skills strongly correlate with various outcomes in the expected directions. Our results support processing-based models where basic limitations in cognition and/or attention produce multiple biases, and they have several other implications for theory and practice.
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