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ACE——解析气候经济模型

ACE—Analytic Climate Economy
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2023 · Christian P. Traeger

中文摘要

本文在一个解析型定量综合评估模型(IAM)中研究最优碳税,该模型将综合评估模型的各组成部分、参数假设和校准方法与其政策影响直接联系起来。本文说明了温度对碳税的影响与以往解析建模的碳动态所产生的影响有何不同。相较于已有解析型综合评估模型,本文的新内容包括:一般经济、包含资本的能源部门、能源来源之间不同程度的可替代性、对资本持续性的近似处理、纳入CES偏好和人口加权的目标函数,以及对温室效应和海洋—大气温度动态的显式建模。本文有助于经济学家就碳的社会成本形成信息基础更加充分的判断。(JEL H23,H43,Q54,Q58)

Abstract

I study optimal carbon taxation in an analytic quantitative integrated assessment model (IAM) that links IAM components, parametric assumptions, and calibration approaches directly to their policy impacts. I show how temperature’s tax impact differs from that of previously analytically modeled carbon dynamics. Novel to analytic IAMs are a general economy, energy sectors including capital, varying degrees of substitutability across energy sources, an approximation of capital persistence, objective functions that include CES preferences and population weighting, and an explicit model of the greenhouse effect and ocean-atmosphere temperature dynamics. The paper enables economists to develop better-informed opinions about the social cost of carbon. (JEL H23, H43, Q54, Q58)
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