Spending Responses to High-Frequency Shifts in Payment Timing: Evidence from the Earned Income Tax Credit
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2023 · Aditya Aladangady、Shifrah Aron-Dine、David Unayama Cashin、Wendy E. Dunn、Laura Feiveson、Paul Lengermann
中文摘要
本研究使用一个新颖的数据集，探讨劳动所得税抵免（EITC）领取者对退税的支出反应，该数据集将基于交易的零售支出指标与美国国税局（IRS）的退税行政数据相结合。借助该数据集，我们能够利用EITC退税时点的变动——包括与2017年《保护美国人免于加税法案》（PATH Act）相关的变化——以及各州退税金额的差异，识别支出反应。结果显示，EITC领取者在退税发放后仅两周内，就会将每1美元退税中的约0.30美元用于支出（按平均退税额计算约为1,150美元）。这表明，针对这一人群的刺激措施可能会迅速提振总需求。（JEL D12、E32、G51、H24、I38、K34）
Abstract
This study explores the spending response to tax refunds for Earned Income Tax Credit recipients using a novel dataset combining transaction-based measures of retail spending with administrative IRS data on tax refunds. Our dataset allows us to exploit variation in the timing of EITC refunds, including changes related to the 2017 PATH Act, along with cross-state differences in refund magnitudes to identify spending responses. Results show EITC recipients spend about $0.30 per refund dollar ($1,150 for the average refund) within just two weeks of issuance, suggesting stimulus targeted at this population may provide a quick boost to aggregate demand. (JEL D12, E32, G51, H24, I38, K34)