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节能可能致命:来自福岛核事故的证据

Energy Saving May Kill: Evidence from the Fukushima Nuclear Accident
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2023 · Guojun He、Takanao Tanaka

中文摘要

福岛核事故后,日本逐步关闭了所有核电站,导致全国范围的电力短缺。作为回应,政府发起了大规模节能运动以减少电力消耗。利用各地区和不同时期的节电目标,我们表明这些运动显著提高了死亡率,尤其是在极端炎热的日子里。这一影响主要由人们减少使用空调所致,而这正是政府所鼓励的。非金钱激励可以解释电力消耗降幅中的大部分。我们的研究结果表明,缓解气候变化与适应气候变化之间存在权衡。(JEL I12、L94、L98、Q48、Q54、Q58)

Abstract

Following the Fukushima nuclear accident, Japan gradually shut down all its nuclear power plants, causing a countrywide power shortage. In response the government launched large-scale energy-saving campaigns to reduce electricity consumption. Exploiting the electricity-saving targets across regions and over time, we show that the campaigns significantly increased mortality, particularly during extremely hot days. The impact is primarily driven by people using less air conditioning, as encouraged by the government. Nonpecuniary incentives can explain most of the reduction in electricity consumption. Our findings suggest there exists a trade-off between climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation. (JEL I12, L94, L98, Q48, Q54, Q58)
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