退税不确定性：证据与福利影响

中文摘要

通过年度退税发放的转移支付是贫困家庭一项数额可观但具有不确定性的收入来源。我们发现，低收入报税人对这些退税存在较大的主观不确定性。通过关联调查、税务和征信机构数据，我们考察了退税不确定性的决定因素及其后果。平均而言，报税人的预期与实际退税额相符。不确定性更高的报税人，其预期退税额与实际退税额之间的差异更大。报税人会在预期收到退税的情况下借款，但不确定性更高的报税人借款更少，这与预防性行为相符。一个简单的消费—储蓄模型表明，退税不确定性使劳动所得税抵免（EITC）带来的福利收益减少约10%。（JEL D81、D83、D84、G51、H24）

Abstract

Transfers paid through annual tax refunds are a large but uncertain source of income for poor households. We document that low-income tax filers have substantial subjective uncertainty about these refunds. We investigate the determinants and consequences of refund uncertainty by linking survey, tax, and credit bureau data. On average, filers' expectations track realized refunds. More uncertain filers have larger differences between expected and realized refunds. Filers borrow in anticipation of their refunds, but more uncertain filers borrow less, consistent with precautionary behavior. A simple consumption-savings model suggests that refund uncertainty reduces the welfare benefits of the EITC by about 10 percent. (JEL D81, D83, D84, G51, H24)