Vaccines and Verdicts: How Smallpox Court Decisions Affect Anti-Vaccine Discourse and Mortality
The Economic Journal · 2024 · Paul A. Brehm、Martín Saavedra
中文摘要
我们估计了强制接种疫苗相关法院裁决对反疫苗言论和死亡率的影响。我们利用美国报纸中的语言衡量反疫苗言论。基于人工分类的训练数据和机器学习技术，我们预测了近48,000个报纸版面中的反疫苗言论。交错双重差分估计表明，州最高法院作出支持疫苗接种的裁决后，反疫苗言论在两年内有所增加，随后回归基准水平。针对美国最高法院“雅各布森诉马萨诸塞州案”裁决的时间断点回归估计得出了类似结论。尽管强制接种疫苗会增加反疫苗言论，但强制接种规定似乎仍然有效；我们估计，支持疫苗接种的裁决作出后，天花死亡率有所下降。
Abstract
Abstract We estimate the effect of compulsory vaccination court decisions on anti-vaccine discourse and mortality. We measure anti-vaccine discourse using language in American newspapers. Using human-classified training data and machine learning techniques, we predict anti-vaccine discourse for nearly 48,000 newspaper pages. Staggered difference-in-differences estimates show that anti-vaccine discourse increased for a period of two years after pro-vaccine state-level Supreme Court decisions before returning to baseline. Regression-discontinuity-in-time estimates yield similar findings following the Jacobson v. Massachusetts US Supreme Court decision. While compulsory vaccinations increase anti-vaccine discourse, mandates appear to remain effective, and we estimate that smallpox mortality rates fell in the wake of pro-vaccine decisions.