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气候变化减缓政策:总体效应与分配效应

Climate Change Mitigation Policies: Aggregate and Distributional Effects
The Economic Journal · 2024 · Tiago Calvacanti、Zeina Hasna、Cezar Santos

中文摘要

我们使用一个包含部门间投入产出关联和劳动者异质性的多部门均衡模型,评估气候变化减缓政策的总体效应与分配效应,并依据多个国家的数据对模型进行校准。碳税会引起相对价格变化和投入要素重新配置,其中劳动要素的变化尤为显著。在美国,履行其《巴黎协定》承诺至多导致产出下降0.8%,且对不同部门和个人的影响并不均衡。高碳能源部门的一些劳动者占劳动力总数不到2%,但其承受的福利损失是其他劳动者的六倍。中国由于依赖高碳能源,在实现相同幅度的减排时会受到更大的经济影响。

Abstract

Abstract We evaluate the aggregate and distributional effects of climate change mitigation policies using a multi-sector equilibrium model with intersectoral input-output linkages and worker heterogeneity, calibrated to various countries. Carbon taxes induce changes in relative prices and input reallocation, notably in labour. In the United States, achieving its Paris Agreement commitment results in, at most, a 0.8% reduction in output, unevenly affecting different sectors and individuals. Some workers in dirty energy sectors, forming less than 2% of the labour force, endure welfare losses six times larger than others. China, reliant on high-carbon energy, experiences larger economic effects from an identical emission reduction.
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