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年金市场出了什么问题?

What’s Wrong with Annuity Markets?
Journal of the European Economic Association · 2024 · Stéphane Verani、Pei Cheng Yu

中文摘要

我们表明,美国终身年金的供给受到利率风险的制约。我们利用1989年至2019年寿险公司提供的年金价格以及合同层面监管资本要求的外生变动来识别这一效应。利率风险管理的成本——在控制逆向选择效应的条件下——约占年金加价的一半,即8个百分点。全球金融危机后,利率风险对年金加价的贡献急剧上升,这表明在利率持续处于低位的环境下,新退休人员转移其长寿风险的机会不太可能改善。

Abstract

Abstract We show that the supply of U.S. life annuities is constrained by interest rate risk. We identify this effect using annuity prices offered by life insurers from 1989 to 2019 and exogenous variations in contract-level regulatory capital requirements. The cost of interest rate risk management—conditional on the effect of adverse selection—accounts for about half of annuity markups, or 8 percentage points. The contribution of interest rate risk to annuity markups sharply increased after the Global Financial Crisis, suggesting new retirees’ opportunities to transfer their longevity risk are unlikely to improve in a persistently low interest rate environment.
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