关于总需求惯性下临时供给冲击的一个注记

中文摘要

我们研究了当总需求具有惯性且中央银行关注未来扩张性政策约束时，临时供给收缩期间的最优货币政策。在此环境下，在供给恢复前使经济过热是最优的。然而，该政策在低供给阶段并非始终宽松。总体而言，当初始总需求较低时，目标是将降息前置，以在预期供给恢复时提高需求。如果通胀也具有惯性，中央银行仍会在低供给阶段使经济过热，但会随时间推移逐渐使其降温。

Abstract

We study optimal monetary policy during temporary supply contractions when aggregate demand has inertia and the central bank is concerned about future constraints on expansionary policy. In this environment, it is optimal to run the economy hot until supply recovers. However, the policy does not remain loose throughout the low-supply phase. Overall, when the initial aggregate demand is low, the goal is to frontload the rate cuts to raise demand in anticipation of the recovery of supply. If inflation also has inertia, the central bank still overheats the economy during the low-supply phase but gradually cools it down over time. (JEL E12, E21, E23, E31, E43, E52)