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声誉与部分违约

Reputation and Partial Default
AER: Insights · 2023 · Manuel Amador、Christopher Phelan

中文摘要

本文提出了一个主权债务的连续时间声誉模型,允许不同水平的部分违约和完全违约。在该模型中,政府可以是非策略性的承诺型,或是策略性的机会主义型,政府的声誉是其为承诺型的均衡贝叶斯后验。我们的均衡表明,对于两种类型在不违约情况下均可达到的债券水平,更大的部分违约(或对债券持有人更大的减记)意味着后续债券发行面临更高的利率,这与数据一致。

Abstract

This paper presents a continuous-time reputation model of sovereign debt allowing for both varying levels of partial default and full default. In it, a government can be a non-strategic commitment type, or a strategic opportunistic type, and a government's reputation is its equilibrium Bayesian posterior of being the commitment type. Our equilibrium has that for bond levels reachable by both types without defaulting, bigger partial defaults (or bigger haircuts for bond holders) imply higher interest rates for subsequent bond issuances, as in the data.
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