生育经济学: 趋势、进展与挑战
The Economics of Childbearing: Trends, Progress, and Challenges
Annual Review of Economics · 2025 · [{"name": "Martha Bailey", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research", "University of California, Los Angeles"]}]
中文摘要
生育的新古典经济学今年迎来 65 周年, 以此纪念 Gary Becker 于 1960 年发表的该主题奠基性文章。本综述首先考察过去一个世纪美国生育行为的演变, 识别出与第二次人口转变相关的 1960 年之后时期的独特特征。接着, 本文讨论标准的新古典生育模型, 并说明如何通过引入供给侧——包括避孕与堕胎的可及性及相关信息——来扩展这些模型, 从而增强其解释力。在回顾近期检验这一扩展模型的准实验研究之后, 本文最后一部分反思美国生育率近期转型对妇女和儿童的影响, 并提出未来研究富有价值的方向。
Abstract
The neoclassical economics of childbearing turns 65 this year, marking the anniversary of Gary Becker's foundational article on the subject in 1960. This review article begins with a study of how childbearing has evolved in the United States over the last century, identifying distinctive features of the post-1960 era associated with the second demographic transition. Next, the article discusses standard neoclassical models of childbearing and shows how augmenting them with a supply side, including access to and information about contraception and abortion, increases their explanatory power. After reviewing recent quasi-experimental research testing this augmented model, the final part of the article reflects upon the implications of the recent transformation in US fertility rates for women and children and suggests fruitful avenues for future research.