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无恐慌的银行危机*

Banking Crises Without Panics*
Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2021 · Matthew Baron、Emil Verner、Wei Xiong

中文摘要

我们透过银行股本下降的视角考察历史上的银行危机,这涵盖了有无银行恐慌的银行困境事件的广泛样本。为此,我们构建了一个关于银行股本回报率及银行恐慌叙述性信息的新数据集,涵盖1870至2016年间46个国家。我们发现,即使在没有恐慌的情况下,银行股本的大幅下降也与显著的信贷收缩和产出缺口相关。尽管恐慌是一种重要的放大机制,我们的结果表明,恐慌并非银行危机产生严重经济后果的必要条件。此外,恐慌往往以银行股本的大幅下降为先导,这表明恐慌是早期银行亏损的结果而非原因。我们利用银行股本回报率揭示了若干被遗忘的历史银行危机,并创建了一份区分银行股本损失与恐慌的银行危机编年史。

Abstract

Abstract We examine historical banking crises through the lens of bank equity declines, which cover a broad sample of episodes of banking distress with and without banking panics. To do this, we construct a new data set on bank equity returns and narrative information on banking panics for 46 countries over the period of 1870 to 2016. We find that even in the absence of panics, large bank equity declines are associated with substantial credit contractions and output gaps. Although panics are an important amplification mechanism, our results indicate that panics are not necessary for banking crises to have severe economic consequences. Furthermore, panics tend to be preceded by large bank equity declines, suggesting that panics are the result, rather than the cause, of earlier bank losses. We use bank equity returns to uncover a number of forgotten historical banking crises and create a banking crisis chronology that distinguishes between bank equity losses and panics.
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