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石油市场的世界均衡模型

A World Equilibrium Model of the Oil Market
Review of Economic Studies · 2022 · Gideon Bornstein、Per Krusell、Sérgio Rebelo

中文摘要

我们利用关于油田的全新、全面的微观数据,构建并估计了一个嵌入世界经济一般均衡模型中的石油行业结构模型。在该模型中,属于石油输出国组织(OPEC)的企业充当卡特尔,其余企业则构成竞争性边缘。我们使用该模型研究水力压裂技术出现的宏观经济影响。水力压裂削弱了OPEC卡特尔,导致油价在长期内大幅下降。水力压裂还降低了长期油价的波动性,因为水力压裂企业能够更迅速地对石油需求的变化做出反应。

Abstract

Abstract We use new, comprehensive micro data on oil fields to build and estimate a structural model of the oil industry embedded in a general equilibrium model of the world economy. In the model, firms that belong to Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) act as a cartel. The remaining firms are a competitive fringe. We use the model to study the macroeconomic impact of the advent of fracking. Fracking weakens the OPEC cartel, leading to a large long-run decline in oil prices. Fracking also reduces the volatility of oil prices in the long run because fracking firms can respond more quickly to changes in oil demand.
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