Are Marriage-Related Taxes and Social Security Benefits Holding Back Female Labour Supply?
Review of Economic Studies · 2022 · Margherita Borella、Mariacristina De Nardi、Fang Yang
中文摘要
在美国，税收和老年社会保障福利均取决于个人的婚姻状况，并往往会减少家庭中次要收入者的劳动供给。这些规定在多大程度上抑制了女性劳动供给？我们使用1945年和1955年出生队列的数据，采用模拟矩方法，估计了一个适用于夫妻和单身者的、内容丰富的劳动供给与储蓄动态生命周期模型。我们的模型能够较好地拟合已婚者和单身者的劳动力市场参与、工作时长与储蓄的生命周期轨迹，并生成合理的劳动供给弹性。模型表明，取消这些婚姻相关规定将大幅提高已婚女性在整个生命周期内的劳动参与率，降低已婚男性在60岁后的劳动参与率，并增加储蓄。如果由此产生的政府盈余被用于降低所得税，绝大多数人口都将获得大幅福利增益。这些结果对两个出生队列均成立，包括较晚出生的队列；该队列的劳动参与率与更近世代相近。
Abstract
Abstract In the US, both taxes and old-age social security benefits depend on one’s marital status and tend to reduce the labour supply of the secondary earner. To what extent are these provisions holding back the female labour supply? We estimate a rich dynamic life-cycle model of labour supply and savings for couples and singles using the Method of Simulated Moments for the 1945 and 1955 birth cohorts. Our model matches well the life-cycle profiles of labour market participation, hours, and savings for married and single people, and generates plausible elasticities of labour supply. It implies that eliminating these marriage-related provisions would drastically increase the participation of married women over their entire life cycle, reduce the participation of married men after age 60, and increase savings. If the resulting government surplus were used to lower income taxation, there would be large welfare gains for the vast majority of the population. These results hold for both cohorts, including the later one, which has participation similar to that of more recent generations.