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选举激励对基础设施质量的持久影响

The persistent impact of electoral incentives on the quality of infrastructure
Journal of Public Economics · 2023 · Daniel Rogger、Ravi Somani

中文摘要

一国基础设施的质量由什么决定?我们表明,建设时的选举激励会对当代非洲供水系统的功能状况产生持久影响。我们采用一种通用的事件研究方法,分析尼日利亚、塞拉利昂和坦桑尼亚在1970年至2014年期间建成的全部供水点。在这三个国家中,我们均发现,与选举后不久安装的基础设施相比,选举前夕安装的基础设施如今正常运行的可能性显著更高。我们的结果表明,政治人物会通过调整所安装供水系统的供应商来回应选举激励。总体而言,这些发现表明,面对公民对公共绩效反应敏锐但较为短视的评价,公职人员会作出最优回应。

Abstract

What determines the quality of a nation’s infrastructure? We show that electoral incentives at the time of construction have persistent effects on the functionality of contemporary African water systems. We apply a common event-study approach to the universe of water points in Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Tanzania built over the period from 1970–2014. Across all three settings, we find that infrastructure installed in the run-up to an election is significantly more likely to be functioning today than those installed shortly after elections. Our results suggest that politicians respond to electoral incentives by adjusting the provider of installed water systems. Together, the findings suggest that public officials optimally respond to responsive but myopic citizen evaluations of public performance.
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