中文摘要
我们表明,新冠肺炎患病及相关工作缺勤会持续减少劳动供给。利用事件研究,我们估计,与其他方面相似但未因健康原因缺勤一周的工人相比,因新冠肺炎缺勤一周的工人在一年后仍处于劳动力市场的可能性低7个百分点。我们的估计表明,新冠肺炎相关缺勤已使美国劳动力减少约50万人(占成年人口的0.2%),并意味着每次新冠肺炎缺勤造成的平均劳动供给损失相当于9,000美元的收入损失,其中约90%反映的是最初缺勤一周之后的损失。
Abstract
We show that Covid-19 illnesses and related work absences persistently reduce labor supply. Using an event study, we estimate that workers with week-long Covid-19 absences are 7 percentage points less likely to be in the labor force one year later compared to otherwise-similar workers who do not miss a week of work for health reasons. Our estimates suggest Covid-19 absences have reduced the U.S.labor force by approximately 500,000 people (0.2 percent of adults) and imply an average labor supply loss per Covid-19 absence equivalent to $9,000 in forgone earnings, about 90 percent of which reflects losses beyond the initial absence week.