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确凿证据?枪支拥有与犯罪受害之间的联系

Smoking gun? Linking gun ownership to crime victimization
Journal of Public Economics · 2023 · Stephen B. Billings

中文摘要

利用关于隐蔽持枪许可证(CHP)、报案犯罪和逮捕情况的个人层面关联数据,我考察了枪支拥有与犯罪受害的动态关系。我首先发现,男性、共和党人、年龄较大、出生于本州以及近期曾遭受犯罪侵害,均会提高成年人取得CHP的概率。持有CHP会使财产犯罪受害率提高46%,其中对枪支被盗的影响最大。CHP持有者个人的暴力犯罪受害情况没有发生变化,因而未显示出任何保护方面的益处。取得CHP会使CHP持有者所在社区的总犯罪率小幅增加(2%),并使使用枪支的暴力犯罪增幅更大(8%)。结果表明,被盗枪支会对社区犯罪产生溢出效应,这是枪支拥有所造成的更广泛社会成本的重要组成部分。

Abstract

Using linked individual data on concealed handgun permits (CHP), reported crimes and arrests, I examine the dynamics of gun-ownership and criminal victimization. I initially show that being male, Republican, older, born in-state and a recent crime victim increases the probability that an adult obtains a CHP. Having a CHP increases property crime victimization by 46% with the largest impact on having a firearm stolen. Individual CHP holders see no change in violent crime victimization thus dispelling any benefits in terms of protection. Obtaining a CHP has a small (2%) increase in total crime and a larger increase on violent crime using a gun (8%) within the CHP holders neighborhood. Results suggest stolen guns spillover to neighborhood crime which is an important component of the larger social costs of gun ownership.
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