中文摘要
主权债务市场将在二十一世纪如何演变？我们综述了相关文献如何回应欧元区债务危机，并将“经验教训”置于历史视角中加以审视。此次危机呈现出以下特征：（i）债务问题重返发达经济体；（ii）银行—主权“厄运循环”，以及主权风险向家庭和企业的传导；（iii）债务展期问题与自我实现的危机动态；（iv）在未发生主权直接违约的情况下出现严重债务困境；（v）来自国外的大规模主权救助；以及（vi）债权人在债务重组中威胁诉讼并拒绝参与（待价而沽）。上述许多特征在历史上的债务危机中已经存在，未来也可能继续具有现实意义。展望未来，本文综述指出，由于中国等新贷款方的出现以及中央银行在全球债务市场中日益占据主导地位，主权与银行之间的关联、法律风险、国内债务与违约以及官方债权人的作用都将日益增强。无论在发展中经济体还是发达经济体，债务可持续性和违约问题都将继续十分严峻。（JEL E58、F33、F34、G01、G21、H63、N20）
Abstract
How will sovereign debt markets evolve in the twenty-first century? We survey how the literature has responded to the eurozone debt crisis, placing “lessons learned” in historical perspective. The crisis featured: (i) the return of debt problems to advanced economies, (ii) a bank–sovereign “doom loop” and the propagation of sovereign risk to households and firms, (iii) rollover problems and self-fulfilling crisis dynamics, (iv) severe debt distress without outright sovereign defaults, (v) large-scale sovereign bailouts from abroad, and (vi) creditor threats to litigate and hold out in a debt restructuring. Many of these characteristics were already present in historical debt crises and are likely to remain relevant in the future. Looking forward, our survey points to a growing role of sovereign bank linkages, legal risks, domestic debt and default, and of official creditors, due to new lenders such as China as well as the increasing dominance of central banks in global debt markets. Questions of debt sustainability and default will remain acute in both developing and advanced economies. (JEL E58, F33, F34, G01, G21, H63, N20)