中文摘要
我们考察了大衰退期间本地劳动力需求收缩如何影响儿童的学业成就。我们将斯坦福教育数据档案中3-8年级的县级考试成绩与一个偏移-份额设计相结合，该设计将各县2005年的产业结构与全国产业就业增长进行交互，从而识别出本地就业中由需求驱动的变化。遵循偏移-份额文献的最新进展，我们通过平衡性、前趋势和Rotemberg权重诊断验证该设计，并在全文中报告暴露稳健的标准误。一个标准差的不利冲击使数学成绩下降约0.03个学生层面的标准差，并扩大了两个科目中的白人—黑人以及经济弱势学生的学业成就差距。在同一地理区域内，损失集中于经济弱势学生。英语语言艺术的估计结果指向相同方向，但更难与大衰退期间的住房市场崩跌区分开来，因此我们将其解释为劳动力需求收缩与相关房价下跌的综合效应。学业成就的响应集中在衰退窗口期内。主要由油价周期识别的2014年后时期得到精确的零效应，因此我们的估计衡量的是对严重收缩的响应，而非一般性的商业周期参数。学校经费并未对这些冲击作出同期响应，而家庭收入、儿童贫困率和房价均作出了响应。
Abstract
We examine how contractions in local labor demand during the Great Recession affected children's academic achievement. We combine county-level test scores for grades 3–8 from the Stanford Education Data Archive with a shift-share design that interacts counties' 2005 industry composition with national industry employment growth, isolating demand-driven changes in local employment. Following recent advances in the shift-share literature, we validate the design with balance, pre-trend, and Rotemberg-weight diagnostics and report exposure-robust standard errors throughout. A one-standard-deviation adverse shock lowers mathematics achievement by about 0.03 student-level standard deviations and widens the White–Black and economic-disadvantage achievement gaps in both subjects. Within a common geography, losses concentrate among economically disadvantaged students. English language arts estimates point in the same direction but are harder to separate from the Great Recession's housing bust, and we interpret them as the combined effect of the labor-demand contraction and the associated decline in house prices. The achievement response is concentrated in the recession window. The post-2014 period, identified mainly by the oil-price cycle, yields a precise null, so our estimates measure the response to severe contractions rather than a general business-cycle parameter. School funding did not respond contemporaneously to these shocks, while family income, child poverty, and house prices all did.